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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-09-20T15:05:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-20T15:05Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27022/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely the eruption and subsequent M8.2 flare from AR 3435 (N07E35) seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-09-20T14:15Z. Dimming and field line movement is visible near the eruption in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery as well. No CME arrival signature at L1 on September 22-23.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-23T17:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-09-20T20:51Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 548
Longitude (deg): E027
Latitude (deg): S19
Half-angular width (deg): 33

Notes: 
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 45.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-09-21T20:00Z

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